Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba74…e022 sports 293 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,192 (+3%) realized +$1,231 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate65%181W / 98L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,514now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$155
14 days+$129
30 days+$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$256
world 12% +$333
other 8% +$61
tech 7% +$135
politics 4% +$341
finance 4% +$143
crypto 3% −$158
economics 0% +$3
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -9.3% -17.9% 68% 45% -6.3%
≤30d 35 -8.5% -17.3% 69% 43% -3.0%
≤90d 96 -37.3% -43.2% 44% 30% -15.4%
all 279 +2.7% -7.1% 65% 45% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 45% -7.1%
10% -16.0% 34% -16.0%
15% -24.1% 25% -24.1%
20% -31.6% 18% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$56 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$2,514
Realized+$1,231
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses181 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions13
Markets (closed)279 / 293
History coverage234d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 84¢ 96¢ $337 $384 +$47 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $300 $344 +$44 (+15%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 79¢ $302 $316 +$14 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $292 $298 +$6 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $300 $254 −$46 (-15%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 72¢ 62¢ $288 $250 −$38 (-13%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 84¢ $233 $217 −$15 (-6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $127 $128 +$1 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $100 $48 −$52 (-52%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 +$6 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $400 +$378 +94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $160 +$4 +2%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? Jun 16 $90 +$6 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $200 +$22 +11%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $550 −$129 -23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$8 +16%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1,001 +$29 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $401 +$21 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $528 +$72 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $222 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $914 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$3 +6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $50 +$2 +4%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $202 +$68 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $148 +$52 +35%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $24 +$1 +4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $455 +$295 +65%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $586 +$14 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $1,061 +$139 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +41%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $18 −$18 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $2 −$2 -96%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $89 +$11 +12%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 08 $139 +$61 +44%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $106 +$94 +89%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $101 +$10 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $95 +$5 +5%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $232 −$149 -64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $500 +$78 +16%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $100 +$50 +50%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $1,000 +$97 +10%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $50 +$6 +11%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $12 19m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $115 22m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $70 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 35¢ $102 29h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $304 38h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 0¢ $0 42h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $54 42h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 43h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $778 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $117 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $94 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $337 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 14¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $25 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $292 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $222 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,514.32 · official $2,514.32 (match) · 1267 history records