Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba75…837f other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$157 (+12%) realized +$277 · open −$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%7W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 14% -19.3%
≤30d 55 -3.7% -12.9% 13% 13% -20.9%
≤90d 55 -3.7% -12.9% 13% 13% -20.9%
all 55 -3.7% -12.9% 13% 13% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 13% -20.9%
10% -21.2% 13% -28.4%
15% -28.9% 13% -35.3%
20% -35.8% 13% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$9 · ×5.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$277
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses7 / 48
Open positions37
Markets (closed)55 / 10
History coverage17d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $17 $92 +$75 (+433%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $17 $88 +$70 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $17 $79 +$61 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $17 $70 +$52 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $17 $34 +$16 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $17 $33 +$15 (+89%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $17 $11 −$7 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $17 $11 −$7 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $17 $7 −$11 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $1 −$16 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $1 −$17 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$13 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +266%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $6 +$30 +514%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$10 -148%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $450 34m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $69 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $57 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $19 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $51 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 13h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 13h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 13h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $33 13h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 18h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 19h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 19h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 19h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.48 · official $458.48 (match) · 91 history records