Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:28:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba76…e0d7 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$630 (+5%) realized +$630 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate89%33W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$349
7 days+$498
14 days+$557
30 days+$631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$470
sports 16% +$165
crypto 0% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.8% -13.0% 88% 25% -4.8%
≤30d 37 -1.9% -11.2% 89% 16% -5.2%
≤90d 37 -1.9% -11.2% 89% 16% -5.2%
all 37 -1.9% -11.2% 89% 16% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 16% -5.2%
10% -19.7% 3% -14.2%
15% -27.5% 3% -22.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$596) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$61 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$630
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses33 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage27d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $403 +$21 +5%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $718 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $728 +$58 +8%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $704 +$48 +7%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,350 +$48 +4%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $663 +$86 +13%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $637 +$50 +8%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $596 +$83 +14%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $571 +$48 +8%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $994 +$138 +14%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 15 $189 −$189 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $941 +$53 +6%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $101 +$40 +39%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $752 +$48 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $179 +$10 +6%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $161 +$13 +8%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $101 +$15 +15%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $145 +$7 +5%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $221 +$24 +11%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $218 +$2 +1%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $524 +$10 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $415 +$32 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $3 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $176 +$4 +2%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $227 +$4 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +3%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 01 $586 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 31 $318 +$14 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $3 $0 +6%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $317 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? May 26 $2 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY No 95¢ $403 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $718 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $728 5h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY No 93¢ $704 6h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 96¢ $1,350 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 30h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 88¢ $663 31h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 92¢ $637 34h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 87¢ $596 2d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 91¢ $571 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 87¢ $994 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $941 5d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 92¢ $189 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $179 6d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 67¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 92¢ $161 8d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 75¢ $51 8d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 95¢ $145 9d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 86¢ $101 9d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 10d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 93¢ $219 14d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 93¢ $534 15d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 99¢ $218 16d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 90¢ $221 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? BUY No 88¢ $4 17d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 92¢ $415 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 90¢ $3 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? BUY No 96¢ $4 18d
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 98¢ $524 18d
Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 97¢ $176 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $421.39 · official $421.39 (match) · 77 history records