Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba77…5bb4 crypto 617 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate79%486W / 131L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$28
14 days+$2
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -13.9% -22.1% 42% 42% -33.1%
≤30d 617 -0.2% -9.7% 79% 38% -8.5%
≤90d 617 -0.2% -9.7% 79% 38% -8.5%
all 617 -0.2% -9.7% 79% 38% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 38% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 20% -17.3%
15% -26.2% 9% -25.3%
20% -33.5% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses486 / 131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)617 / 617
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 617 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1338 history records