Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba81…528c crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized +$16 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$15
crypto 30% −$30
sports 19% −$14
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -59.2% -63.1% 20% 0% -22.3%
≤30d 5 -59.2% -63.1% 20% 0% -22.3%
≤90d 5 -59.2% -63.1% 20% 0% -22.3%
all 5 -59.2% -63.1% 20% 0% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.1% 0% -22.3%
10% -66.6% 0% -29.7%
15% -69.8% 0% -36.5%
20% -72.8% 0% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 48¢ 46¢ $326 $312 −$15 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 24¢ $52 $49 −$3 (-6%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 69¢ 50¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $111 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $106 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $76 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $20 46m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $53 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $100 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 69¢ $5 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $90 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 33¢ $28 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 36¢ $20 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 65¢ $20 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 34¢ $40 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 25¢ $29 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 25¢ $1 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $4 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $2 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $20 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $100 33h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $126 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.60 · official $424.60 (match) · 33 history records