Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:29:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba82…6eb1 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-8%) realized −$81 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$132
sports 18% +$14
crypto 4% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -10.0% -18.6% 36% 32% -19.2%
≤30d 53 -10.0% -18.6% 36% 32% -19.2%
≤90d 53 -10.0% -18.6% 36% 32% -19.2%
all 53 -10.0% -18.6% 36% 32% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 32% -19.2%
10% -26.4% 28% -26.9%
15% -33.5% 28% -34.0%
20% -40.0% 26% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage5d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 39¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 −$14 -55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $54 +$28 +51%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$12 +57%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 +$33 +650%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$8 +20%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 $0 -2%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 −$25 -60%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 22 $2 +$2 +105%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +56%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $1 $0 +21%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$26 +70%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$25 +130%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 $0 -29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 8h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 9h
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 17h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 21h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 67¢ $19 21h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 21h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $20 21h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 33h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $101 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 34h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.75 · official $151.75 (match) · 111 history records