Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba86…9ab0 sports 502 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,489 (-7%) realized −$5,452 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%197W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$803est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$264
7 days+$428
14 days+$1,321
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,862
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +3.1% -6.8% 43% 43% -1.2%
≤30d 130 -3.6% -12.8% 43% 42% -9.2%
≤90d 344 -12.3% -20.7% 40% 40% -16.7%
all 499 -13.7% -21.9% 39% 39% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 39% -16.3%
10% -29.4% 38% -24.3%
15% -36.2% 38% -31.6%
20% -42.4% 38% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$143 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$5,452
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses197 / 302
Est. fees paid−$803
Open positions3
Markets (closed)499 / 502
History coverage174d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedallah Shelbayh Abedallah Shelbayh 37¢ 46¢ $230 $283 +$53 (+23%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Matteo Arnaldi 53¢ 53¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Titouan Droguet 57¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 237 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $229 −$27 -12%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $204 +$352 +172%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $142 −$140 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $152 +$131 +86%
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Jun 19 $224 +$288 +129%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $255 −$250 -98%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $203 +$182 +90%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $224 −$220 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $461 +$465 +101%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $263 −$258 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $263 −$259 -98%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 18 $98 −$96 -98%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $61 +$67 +109%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $199 +$267 +134%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $159 −$157 -98%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $132 −$130 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $153 +$276 +180%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $2 +$3 +119%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $200 +$375 +188%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $133 −$130 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $133 −$131 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $172 +$188 +109%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $102 +$184 +181%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $142 −$140 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $126 +$72 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $102 +$102 +101%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $127 +$105 +83%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $203 +$161 +79%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $200 +$304 +152%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $314 −$308 -98%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $153 −$150 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $205 +$364 +177%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $193 −$190 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $163 −$161 -99%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $251 +$310 +124%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $233 −$230 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $399 +$85 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $216 +$183 +84%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $105 +$111 +106%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $153 −$150 -98%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $91 −$90 -98%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $130 −$128 -99%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $142 +$91 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 53¢ $152 37m
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 57¢ $91 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Abedallah Shelbayh 37¢ $234 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson SELL Murphy Cassone 35¢ $203 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson BUY Murphy Cassone 38¢ $229 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 36¢ $204 15h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Laslo Djere 43¢ $142 17h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 53¢ $152 18h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 43¢ $224 20h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Zhizhen Zhang 37¢ $255 21h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 52¢ $203 43h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $224 43h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $927 43h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 49¢ $461 45h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 36¢ $263 46h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 47¢ $263 47h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Miriam Bulgaru 36¢ $203 2d
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) BUY Parry 34¢ $98 2d
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 43¢ $103 2d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 43¢ $31 2d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 47¢ $61 2d
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 100¢ $466 2d
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 42¢ $199 2d
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 42¢ $159 2d
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 45¢ $132 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 35¢ $153 4d
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 47¢ $122 4d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 45¢ $2 4d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 51¢ $101 4d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 99¢ $575 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.19 · official $433.19 (match) · 811 history records