Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba88…10ba politics 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 69L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$17
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 71 -2.0% -11.3% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage628d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Apple reach $324 in January? Feb 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Beanie Bishop Jr. lead the NFL in interceptions this season? Nov 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close over $3,000 at the end of 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
No Trump coin reaches $1b? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mason Graham be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Dec 21 $1 $0 -3%
Democrats win popular vote by 7% or more? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Noah Fifita win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration? Dec 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Michigan win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Nov 25 $0 $0 -3%
Will Jordan Love be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Nov 25 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 14h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 32d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 33d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 35d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 36d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 39d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 40d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 42d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 43d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 62d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 62d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 63d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 63d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 66d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $58 67d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $58 68d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $58 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $58 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $58 74d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $58 84d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $58 88d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $58 93d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $58 93d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 97d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records