Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BA 0xba8e…8e0d sports 434 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$128 (-0%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%225W / 209L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$470est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$204
14 days−$563
30 days−$1,380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,316
world 14% +$1,050
other 1% −$63
politics 0% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 40% -14.2%
≤30d 246 -2.8% -12.1% 54% 48% -16.2%
≤90d 370 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 45% -11.0%
all 434 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 44% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 44% -10.6%
10% -20.2% 31% -19.2%
15% -27.9% 19% -27.0%
20% -35.0% 11% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$40 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses225 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$470
Open positions0
Markets (closed)434 / 434
History coverage202d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 434 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $49 −$21 -43%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $73 +$19 +26%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $42 −$11 -27%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $99 −$11 -11%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $73 −$21 -29%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $46 −$7 -14%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $21 +$11 +54%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $58 +$10 +18%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $59 −$8 -14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $77 −$24 -32%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $91 −$8 -9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $79 +$13 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $59 +$20 +34%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $26 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $21 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$15 -45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$8 -20%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $29 +$9 +30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $39 −$10 -25%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$5 +33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$3 -16%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $47 −$30 -64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $90 −$43 -48%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $82 −$37 -45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $85 +$20 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $87 +$20 +22%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $78 +$9 +12%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$18 +57%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$15 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $71 +$7 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $169 −$6 -4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $155 +$15 +10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $45 +$30 +66%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $91 +$34 +38%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $73 +$17 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 34¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 34¢ $1 42m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 34¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 34¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 34¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 34¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 34¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 34¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 34¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 34¢ $13 42m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 58¢ $49 44m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner SELL illwill 100¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 87¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner SELL illwill 91¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner SELL illwill 91¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 63¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 58¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 78¢ $42 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 81¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 81¢ $31 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 81¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 91¢ $47 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 73¢ $46 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 81¢ $28 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 81¢ $24 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL INOX Division 57¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL INOX Division 58¢ $43 7h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL INOX Division 65¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 81¢ $73 7h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $40 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1910 history records