Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BA 0xba91…25d0 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%27W / 10L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$5
other 20% −$1
sports 13% −$1
crypto 8% +$1
economics 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 37 +0.1% -9.4% 73% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses27 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage610d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will BNB reach $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $1.90 May 25-31? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 May 25-31? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 13-19? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 April 13-19? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 27 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on March 23? Apr 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22? Apr 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 March 16-22? Apr 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 16? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 14? Mar 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Feb 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 19? Feb 14 $24 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 22-28? Jan 19 $54 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 29 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Nov 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in September? Nov 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 25 $17 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jul 18 $51 +$1 +1%
Will another party win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 29 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $36 $0 -0%
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? Oct 17 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Oct 17 $1,102 −$1 -0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 16 $622 −$1 -0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Oct 16 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? Oct 16 $1,726 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 16 $1,232 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 16 $496 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will BNB reach $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will XRP reach $1.90 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $4 22d
Will XRP reach $2.00 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $62 22d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $75 65d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 65d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $16 65d
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $14 65d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $46 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $45 88d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $19 88d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 123d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 16? BUY No 100¢ $13 123d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 123d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 150d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $26 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $47 150d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 19? BUY No 100¢ $24 150d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $55 171d
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $54 171d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 99¢ $15 214d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $8 214d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $12 214d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $73 214d
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 262d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $25 262d
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 297d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? BUY No 100¢ $17 335d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.98 · official $109.98 (match) · 116 history records