Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba96…95a7 weather 479 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,015 (-12%) realized −$2,965 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate30%141W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$15
14 days+$5
30 days−$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$3,238
crypto 3% −$65
other 0% −$27
economics 0% −$18
world 0% −$15
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.9% +8.5% 33% 33% -25.9%
≤30d 30 -35.8% -41.9% 23% 23% -68.2%
≤90d 475 -32.3% -38.7% 30% 22% -22.0%
all 475 -32.3% -38.7% 30% 22% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 22% -22.0%
10% -44.6% 19% -29.4%
15% -49.9% 17% -36.3%
20% -54.9% 17% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$28 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$2,965
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses141 / 334
Open positions4
Markets (closed)475 / 479
History coverage71d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Yes 60¢ 32¢ $60 $32 −$28 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Yes 52¢ 57¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 19 $5 +$21 +396%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$18 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 09 $20 +$16 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 06 $10 +$9 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 3? Jun 05 $15 +$17 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 27? Jun 02 $31 +$53 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 14? May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 13? May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16? May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 13? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 15? May 27 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on May 16? May 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14? May 27 $123 −$123 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 20? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15? May 27 $204 −$204 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on May 15? May 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 20? May 27 $21 +$54 +259%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on May 17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17? May 19 $21 +$21 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? May 15 $21 +$73 +350%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 13? May 15 $21 +$21 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 14? May 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 13? May 13 $72 −$71 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 12? May 13 $123 +$96 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 12? May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026? May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 11? May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 11? May 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 11? May 12 $274 +$142 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10? May 11 $16 +$48 +306%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11? May 10 $31 −$16 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? May 10 $51 +$41 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 3? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 3? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 3? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 8? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 3? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 3? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 27? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 23d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 27? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 23d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 27? BUY Yes 44¢ $26 23d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 30d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 30d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on May 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 33d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on May 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 34d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.92 · official $114.93 (match) · 1077 history records