Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba99…f25f other 15 markets active 3h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$16
crypto 19% $0
world 14% +$1
tech 14% +$4
economics 14% +$4
politics 7% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 3 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
all 14 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 0% -8.4%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage212d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $177 $177 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $175 +$2 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 23 $172 +$3 +2%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 04 $168 +$2 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $170 +$1 +0%
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 30 $154 +$15 +9%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Jan 27 $148 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 07 $152 +$1 +1%
Over $1B committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 25 $151 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 8-14? Dec 17 $151 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 09 $150 $0 +0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Nov 26 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 17-23? Nov 24 $150 $0 +0%
Over $3B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.91 · official $176.91 (match) · 33 history records