Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba9d…46ef crypto 1433 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,389 (-7%) realized −$3,361 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%787W / 722L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,284
7 days−$5,033
14 days−$4,396
30 days−$4,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$368
other 6% +$154
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 399 -36.4% -42.4% 34% 34% -48.9%
≤30d 807 -14.0% -22.2% 46% 46% -27.2%
≤90d 1509 -5.3% -14.3% 52% 50% -18.1%
all 1509 -5.3% -14.3% 52% 50% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 50% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 46% -26.0%
15% -30.0% 42% -33.1%
20% -36.9% 38% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$30 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$992
Realized−$3,361
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses787 / 722
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1509 / 1433
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $200 $224 +$24 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $200 $220 +$20 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $430 −$430 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$19 -356%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $139 −$139 -100%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $192 −$192 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $386 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $309 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $991.90 · official $992.17 (match) · 3500 history records