Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA
0xbaa1…90b6
other · 70 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$28
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses28 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)53 / 70
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 17 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 87¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Canada leading at halftime? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw? No 75¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Cyle Larin: 2+ goals Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? No 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? $30 −$16 -52%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? $2 +$1 +40%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? $16 −$4 -23%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? $1 −$1 -76%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET $1 $0 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? $25 +$16 +62%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? $4 −$4 -100%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $3 $0 +12%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? $1 +$2 +182%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $2 $0 +16%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $2 $0 +13%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $2 $0 +16%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $2 $0 +3%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $1 $0 +33%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $1 $0 +16%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $1 $0 +12%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $2 $0 -7%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $1 $0 +4%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $6 $0 +2%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? $1 −$1 -97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? $1 −$1 -96%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? $1 −$1 -96%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? $1 −$1 -85%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? $1 $0 -1%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? $2 −$2 -100%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? $1 $0 +44%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? $2 +$1 +34%
Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? $3 $0 +6%
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? $3 +$1 +21%
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? $3 $0 +12%
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? $2 $0 +20%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? $2 $0 -8%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? $1 −$1 -98%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? $1 −$1 -74%
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? $1 $0 +5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? $2 $0 +8%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? $1 $0 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? $1 $0 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? $1 $0 +14%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% −$18
other 40% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
—
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -53.0% -57.4% 25% 25% -54.4%
≤30d 51 -16.8% -24.8% 55% 39% -19.2%
≤90d 52 -18.4% -26.2% 54% 38% -20.2%
all 53 -18.6% -26.4% 53% 38% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 38% -20.3%
10% -33.4% 15% -27.9%
15% -39.9% 8% -34.9%
20% -45.8% 4% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.13 · official $28.13 (match) · 134 history records