Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xbaa2…05a2
crypto · 1672 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$205 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,311 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,311
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses861 / 517
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1378 / 1672
History coverage23d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day76.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1378 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days+$606
14 days+$727
30 days+$1,311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+104%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$9 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$14 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 528 +26.2% +14.2% 65% 65% +16.1%
≤30d 1378 +18.8% +7.5% 62% 62% +11.2%
≤90d 1378 +18.8% +7.5% 62% 62% +11.2%
all 1378 +18.8% +7.5% 62% 62% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.5% 62% +11.2%
10% ← realistic here -2.8% 62% +0.6%
15% -12.2% 62% -9.2%
20% -20.8% 61% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.02 (match) · 2625 history records