trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $6,500 | +$6,222 | +96% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Jun 11 | $16,070 | −$1,460 | -9% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 11 | $13,252 | −$1,650 | -12% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 11 | $32,798 | +$22,518 | +69% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $8,820 | −$5,146 | -58% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 08 | $976 | +$215 | +22% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 07 | $29,700 | −$21,096 | -71% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 07 | $176 | −$102 | -58% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 07 | $2,038 | +$643 | +32% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Jun 01 | $17,847 | −$16,848 | -94% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1,962 | −$964 | -49% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | Jun 01 | $13,876 | −$11,726 | -84% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $59,183 | +$13,136 | +22% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1,735 | +$145 | +8% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 01 | $179,014 | +$66,618 | +37% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 01 | $103,244 | +$15,535 | +15% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | May 30 | $5,920 | −$4,685 | -79% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | May 29 | $2,000 | +$1,043 | +52% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 44% | 44% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 50% | 44% | +1.9% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 50% | 44% | +1.9% |
| all | 18 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 50% | 44% | +1.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -17.7% | 44% | +1.9% |
| 10% | -25.6% | 28% | -7.9% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -32.8% | 22% | -16.8% |
| 20% | -39.4% | 17% | -24.9% |