Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xbaa3…6721 crypto 743 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+1%) realized +$73 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate40%293W / 445L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$44
14 days−$1,067
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$198
weather 7% −$82
sports 5% +$465
world 0% −$14
finance 0% −$17
other 0% −$7
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -8.3% -17.0% 55% 3% -11.6%
≤30d 650 -38.3% -44.2% 34% 9% -11.6%
≤90d 738 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 17% -8.7%
all 738 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 17% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 17% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 17% -17.4%
15% -34.2% 17% -25.4%
20% -40.7% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses293 / 445
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)738 / 743
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 738 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 21¢ 37¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+77%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$10 +1900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.42 · official $46.33 (match) · 3500 history records