Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BA 0xbaa5…3747 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+3%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$76
world 37% −$6
other 22% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 5 +1.0% -8.6% 20% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 7 -12.1% -20.5% 29% 0% -6.7%
all 7 -12.1% -20.5% 29% 0% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 0% -6.7%
10% -28.1% 0% -15.6%
15% -35.1% 0% -23.8%
20% -41.4% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$2 · ×16.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.43 per $1 lost it wins $6.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage89d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Jun 22 $248 −$1 -0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $255 −$3 -1%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 18 $266 −$2 -1%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 03 $470 +$40 +9%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 02 $451 −$5 -1%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) Apr 18 $369 +$36 +10%
Spread: Llaneros FC (-2.5) Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $18 1h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $229 1h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? BUY No 89¢ $248 2h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $252 2h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $255 4h
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $264 4d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $266 4d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Wales 92¢ $286 20d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Wales 92¢ $184 20d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $9 20d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $437 20d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $451 20d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Qingdao Xihaian FC 91¢ $369 66d
Spread: Llaneros FC (-2.5) BUY Llaneros FC 0¢ $0 89d
Spread: Llaneros FC (-2.5) BUY Llaneros FC 1¢ $1 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records