Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaa6…9361 sports 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$420 (-4%) realized −$447 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%67W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$442
7 days+$178
14 days−$85
30 days−$1,117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$75
other 21% −$284
politics 2% −$211
finance 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -27.5% -34.4% 35% 30% -4.2%
≤30d 112 -11.5% -19.9% 30% 29% -21.2%
≤90d 234 -9.6% -18.2% 29% 28% -13.2%
all 234 -9.6% -18.2% 29% 28% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 28% -13.2%
10% -26.0% 28% -21.5%
15% -33.2% 27% -29.1%
20% -39.7% 25% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$37 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses67 / 167
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions5
Markets (closed)234 / 239
History coverage48d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ 80¢ $100 $192 +$92 (+92%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 18¢ 34¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+91%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$154 +152%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $117 +$44 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $153 +$7 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $102 +$148 +145%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $102 +$172 +169%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $435 +$226 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$50 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $596 +$284 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $508 −$25 -5%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 03 $218 −$201 -92%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 31 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $611 −$330 -54%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 31 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $102 −$6 -6%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $86 −$86 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $45 +$153 +340%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $201 +$335 +167%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $46 +$201 +442%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 29 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 29 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $28 +$58 +203%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 29 $21 −$1 -4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $204 −$204 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 18¢ $20 21m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $102 21m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $41 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $256 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ $102 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $44 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $31 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $104 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $117 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $102 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 13h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $51 19h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $160 19h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $250 19h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ $102 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $102 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 96¢ $274 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $102 21h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ $31 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $30 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $661 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $435 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $880 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $596 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $74 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 21¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.91 · official $267.62 · 493 history records