trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | +4.4% | -5.6% | 100% | 17% | -5.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 100% | 11% | -5.6% |
| all | 27 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 89% | 11% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.7% | 11% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 4% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $8,696 | $8,692 | −$4 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | May 28 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this we | May 28 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? | May 28 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana dip to $30 in March? | May 28 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | May 28 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua | Mar 25 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jan 06 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 06 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Jan 06 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Jan 06 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | Jan 06 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 202 | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 12 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? | Nov 12 | $3 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on September 20? | Oct 22 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September? | Oct 22 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | Sep 20 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $126K on August 18? | Sep 20 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Sep 20 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder get the #1 seed in 2025 NBA Western Con | Sep 20 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Feb 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Dec 13 | $7,327 | +$8 | +0% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Oct 31 | $22 | $0 | -0% |