Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BA 0xbaa9…4baa other 506 markets active 2h ago coverage 695d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+0%) realized +$199 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate46%225W / 262L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$7
14 days−$35
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$1,101
sports 10% −$245
politics 9% −$16
crypto 5% −$968
economics 3% −$5
world 3% −$35
finance 2% +$197
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -5.0% -14.0% 49% 49% -8.8%
≤30d 91 -11.2% -19.7% 44% 44% -34.2%
≤90d 336 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 30% -13.0%
all 487 -5.5% -14.5% 46% 27% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 27% -9.5%
10% -22.7% 20% -18.1%
15% -30.2% 16% -26.1%
20% -37.0% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

695d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses225 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions18
Markets (closed)487 / 506
History coverage695d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? No 95¢ 96¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? No 94¢ 94¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? No 81¢ 80¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 67¢ 66¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? No 64¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 63¢ 62¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 57¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? No 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score No 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 36¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $12 +$8 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$10 +99%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 26 $12 +$8 +62%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 +$5 +36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $35 +$6 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 +$13 +173%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $13 +$8 +60%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $11 +$9 +79%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $11 +$10 +90%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $35 +$5 +13%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 25 $6 +$10 +165%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $8 +$11 +146%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $34 +$6 +17%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 +$6 +44%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $9 +$11 +119%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$9 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 +$14 +442%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $8 +$12 +158%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $8 +$12 +152%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $35 +$5 +14%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $8 +$12 +158%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $35 +$6 +16%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $23 +$18 +79%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$10 +97%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $6 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $13 −$12 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $34 +$6 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $12 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $14 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 17¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $12 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $12 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 67¢ $14 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $8 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $7 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $8 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $13 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 23h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $9 24h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 72¢ $15 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $10 24h
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $12 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $9 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 24h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Sweden 73¢ $15 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $10 24h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $12 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $11 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $9 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.69 · official $271.70 (match) · 2964 history records