Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BA 0xbaaa…f79c sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$47 (-2%) realized −$47 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip

Net edge-74%after slip

Net WR8%break-even

Win rate8%2W / 22L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$120per market

Trades / day33.6pace

Fees−$27est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +8%

net ROI/market (all)-69.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-66.4%	-69.6%	8%	8%	-57.5%
≤30d	24	-66.4%	-69.6%	8%	8%	-57.5%
≤90d	24	-66.4%	-69.6%	8%	8%	-57.5%
all	24	-66.4%	-69.6%	8%	8%	-57.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-69.6%	8%	-57.5%
10% ← realistic here	-72.5%	8%	-61.6%
15%	-75.2%	8%	-65.3%
20%	-77.6%	8%	-68.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -66% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -55% → late -78% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$461 vs −$108 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$47

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)8%

Wins / losses2 / 22

Est. fees paid−$27

Open positions0

Markets (closed)24 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$120

Trades / day33.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 24 Trades

no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 22	$96	−$92	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 22	$104	−$100	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 22	$76	+$125	+163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 22	$338	−$325	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 22	$111	−$105	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 22	$210	−$200	-95%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$142	−$139	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$41	−$40	-97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	Jun 22	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$153	−$150	-98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$310	−$305	-98%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5)	Jun 22	$48	−$48	-100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$246	+$798	+325%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 21	$31	−$5	-15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$252	−$178	-71%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$41	−$40	-97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 21	$41	−$29	-70%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$418	−$410	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$41	−$40	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$96	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$201	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$76	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$104	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$104	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$104	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$106	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$105	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$105	2h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	34¢	$142	5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$41	5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	29¢	$153	5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$310	5h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5)	BUY Uruguay	9¢	$48	25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	9¢	$26	25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	10¢	$31	25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	23¢	$246	25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	12¢	$65	25h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	9¢	$41	25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL Yes	4¢	$7	26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL Yes	11¢	$5	26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	28h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	1¢	$26	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records