Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xbaac…ff10
sports · 485 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$16,281 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,440 · open +$158
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,385
Realized−$16,440
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses311 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1,279
Open positions13
Markets (closed)472 / 485
History coverage99d
Avg bet$1,209
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 13 History 472 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$818
7 days−$913
14 days−$429
30 days−$1,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 93¢ 100¢ $1,579 $1,701 +$122 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,010 $1,094 +$84 (+8%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $113 $117 +$4 (+4%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $75 $80 +$5 (+7%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $42 $69 +$27 (+64%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $56 $62 +$6 (+12%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $50 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-7%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-12%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $42 $33 −$9 (-21%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $39 $13 −$26 (-66%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $54 $9 −$45 (-83%)
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 Yes 59¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 60¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Timberwolves 79¢ 0¢ $154 $0 −$154 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Ducks 53¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 37¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 Yes 59¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics Athletics 37¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in May 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 51¢ 0¢ $152 $0 −$152 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $953 −$901 -94%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $172 +$28 +16%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $158 +$42 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 197.5 Jun 09 $942 +$57 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $153 −$152 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 04 $160 +$40 +25%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 04 $620 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $114 +$86 +75%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1,147 +$116 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $2,942 +$101 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $213 +$96 +45%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $460 +$35 +8%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $138 +$3 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $158 +$40 +25%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $204 −$169 -83%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 May 26 $118 −$118 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $1 +$1 +104%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 26 $951 +$38 +4%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 26 $982 +$17 +2%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $461 +$317 +69%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 May 23 $1,204 +$191 +16%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 23 $119 −$118 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $800 +$190 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $670 −$410 -61%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $399 −$244 -61%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 18 $149 −$110 -74%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5 May 18 $89 −$39 -44%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $186 −$127 -68%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $2,308 +$238 +10%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $56 −$15 -27%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $62 −$47 -76%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $363 +$63 +18%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $45 −$37 -82%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 17 $146 +$19 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 16 $51 +$23 +46%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 16 $51 −$50 -99%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 16 $70 +$24 +34%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 May 15 $85 +$55 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 15 $147 −$89 -61%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 15 $263 −$173 -66%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) May 14 $63 +$37 +59%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) May 14 $101 +$42 +42%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 14 $61 +$28 +46%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) May 14 $65 −$5 -8%
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5 May 13 $56 −$56 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 13 $264 −$148 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% −$5,910
other 9% −$1,639
world 8% −$5,249
finance 2% −$2,642
crypto 0% −$505
tech 0% −$136
weather 0% +$10
politics 0% −$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $274 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $96 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $96 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $96 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 5¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 87¢ $120 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 92¢ $832 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 85¢ $425 7h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 87¢ $87 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.8% -29.3% 67% 50% -43.0%
≤30d 48 -14.5% -22.6% 58% 40% -14.6%
≤90d 416 -7.8% -16.6% 67% 33% -11.3%
all 472 -7.9% -16.6% 66% 32% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 32% -12.1%
10% -24.6% 18% -20.5%
15% ← realistic here -31.9% 9% -28.2%
20% -38.6% 6% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,384.68 · official $3,384.70 (match) · 3500 history records