Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaad…9cd2 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized +$50 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$161
other 7% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% -0.6%
≤30d 7 -40.7% -46.3% 29% 29% -1.1%
≤90d 7 -40.7% -46.3% 29% 29% -1.1%
all 7 -40.7% -46.3% 29% 29% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.3% 29% -1.1%
10% -51.4% 29% -10.6%
15% -56.1% 29% -19.2%
20% -60.4% 29% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$344 vs −$116 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,063
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage19d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance Bosnia and Herzegovina 19¢ 18¢ $1,052 $1,024 −$28 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $29 +$14 (+96%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $44 $8 −$36 (-82%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-93%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $21 $1 −$21 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $485 +$597 +123%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $511 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $99 +$91 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 19¢ $1,078 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,082 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $485 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $511 5h
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 16d
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 16d
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 16d
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 16d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 17d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $46 17d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 17d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $99 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,062.62 · official $1,062.62 (match) · 31 history records