Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbab2…9d89 world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$6
politics 16% −$2
crypto 11% $0
other 9% −$5
sports 4% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 21 +0.2% -9.3% 48% 5% -8.8%
≤90d 32 -0.9% -10.3% 38% 3% -9.4%
all 49 -5.2% -14.2% 45% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 4% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage534d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $99 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $22 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $131 +$2 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $92 +$7 +7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $11 −$2 -18%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $44 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $94 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $13 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $33 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $42 +$2 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $4 −$1 -15%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $256 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 13 $257 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $13 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $249 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $275 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $40 $0 +0%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Mar 22 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel retaliates against Houthis by Friday? Mar 20 $2 +$1 +46%
Rockets vs. Thunder Mar 20 $5 −$4 -72%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 02 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $49 +$1 +2%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 21 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $53 31m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $53 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $3 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $3 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $53 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $52 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $46 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $6 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $6 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records