Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xbab8…e1d7 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$37 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$4
other 15% +$5
crypto 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -10.9% -19.4% 41% 41% -13.5%
≤30d 39 -10.9% -19.4% 41% 41% -13.5%
≤90d 46 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 43% -13.0%
all 46 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 43% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 43% -13.0%
10% -24.6% 41% -21.3%
15% -31.9% 35% -28.9%
20% -38.5% 28% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage61d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $20 $42 +$22 (+108%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 43¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$7 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$37 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$16 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $13 +$10 +76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 +$14 +109%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$7 -44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +64%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$4 -84%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$10 -51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +188%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $38 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $40 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $13 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $11 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $13 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 68¢ $20 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 90¢ $19 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.52 · official $64.25 · 84 history records