Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xbab9…e027 crypto 1023 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$619 (-3%) realized −$583 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%521W / 494L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$8
14 days−$74
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$446
sports 32% −$406
world 12% +$42
other 8% −$49
weather 7% −$264
finance 4% −$33
politics 2% +$271
culture 0% −$3
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 41% -7.5%
≤30d 375 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 41% -14.2%
≤90d 821 -10.1% -18.7% 53% 38% -14.0%
all 1015 -9.6% -18.2% 51% 38% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 38% -13.5%
10% -26.1% 27% -21.8%
15% -33.2% 19% -29.3%
20% -39.8% 14% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$583
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses521 / 494
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1015 / 1023
History coverage177d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1015 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $23 −$5 (-17%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 15¢ $37 $21 −$16 (-43%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $14 −$13 (-48%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 225 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $100 −$3 -3%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Jun 26 $2 $0 +10%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 AND Wil Jun 26 $25 +$15 +62%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AN Jun 26 $38 +$23 +60%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $33 +$16 +47%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 23 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$11 +140%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$1 -7%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 $0 -5%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $25 −$7 -28%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $19 −$10 -54%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$15 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $12 $0 -4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$14 +34%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $16 −$8 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +222%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +216%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$5 +159%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $48 −$38 -78%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $71 −$2 -3%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $14 $0 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$4 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? SELL No 44¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 48¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? SELL Yes 21¢ $42 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 61¢ $25 15h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 62¢ $38 22h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Switze BUY 28¢ $13 45h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 28¢ $11 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 67¢ $33 46h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Wil BUY 17¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND SELL 27¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Por BUY 38¢ $11 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 51¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 41¢ $8 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $9 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.58 · official $58.58 (match) · 3284 history records