Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xbaba…cf38 crypto 768 markets active 3h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,441 (-1%) realized −$1,441 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%403W / 365L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,119
7 days−$2,519
14 days−$3,811
30 days−$3,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$1,978
sports 12% −$4,171
world 3% −$424
other 1% −$55
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -59.6% -63.4% 27% 27% -43.7%
≤30d 38 -14.7% -22.8% 53% 37% -23.5%
≤90d 437 -6.2% -15.2% 52% 49% -10.6%
all 768 -4.7% -13.7% 52% 47% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 47% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 46% -19.4%
15% -29.5% 44% -27.2%
20% -36.4% 41% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$114 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses403 / 365
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)768 / 768
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$152
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 768 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $2,645 +$286 +11%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $993 −$977 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $312 +$129 +41%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $378 −$363 -96%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $198 −$194 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1,009 −$994 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $201 +$22 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $602 −$111 -18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $315 −$310 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$131 +129%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $339 +$63 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $448 +$54 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,003 +$108 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $408 +$163 +40%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $308 −$65 -21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,868 −$902 -48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $867 −$864 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,068 +$66 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $962 +$39 +4%
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? Jun 11 $229 +$1 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $742 +$10 +1%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $599 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$10 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $411 −$400 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $243 +$651 +267%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $42 +$73 +174%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $20 +$38 +188%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $132 −$130 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 +$98 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $616 +$187 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 25 $79 −$76 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 25 $51 +$24 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 22 $62 +$58 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5) May 21 $26 +$14 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 21 $307 −$307 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 21 $31 +$30 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 21 $200 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $84 +$69 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $2 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $2 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $2 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $3 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $3 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $168 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $257 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $275 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,316 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,316 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $281 3h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $441 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over $9 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $11 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $451 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $58 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $24 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $12 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $558 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $75 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records