Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbabb…03be other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$19
politics 25% −$14
sports 24% −$17
economics 5% −$3
crypto 5% −$1
culture 4% −$4
world 3% +$1
tech 2% +$1
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 62 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 108 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 121 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 106
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage103d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $62 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 19 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $443 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $111 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $210 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $65 −$4 -6%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $55 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $59 $0 +1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $229 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 09 $42 −$1 -2%
Will NRG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $64 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $119 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +1%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $15 −$1 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $111 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $213 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $305 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $97 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $51 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $142 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $62 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $62 10h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $61 10h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $62 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $56 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $56 21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $63 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $64 29h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $46 29h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $47 36h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $47 36h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $48 40h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $46 41h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $47 47h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $63 47h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $64 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $54 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $54 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $59 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.27 · official $49.27 (match) · 498 history records