trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 7 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 43% | 14% | -7.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 43% | 14% | -7.2% |
| all | 27 | -2.6% | -11.8% | 22% | 4% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 4% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 47¢ | 47¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $39 | +$6 | +15% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 04 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 04 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 02 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 01 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | Sep 02 | $36 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29? | Sep 02 | $2 | −$2 | -70% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Aug 29 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 28 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Aug 28 | $73 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Aug 28 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? | Aug 28 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? | Aug 28 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | Aug 27 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? | Aug 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? | Aug 27 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? | Aug 26 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Aug 26 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Aug 26 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? | Aug 26 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? | Aug 25 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Pope Francis be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Aug 25 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump be impeached in 2025? | Aug 25 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Aug 25 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Aug 25 | $4 | $0 | +0% |