Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
BA 0xbabd…9260 politics 11 markets active 3h ago coverage 244d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$3
sports 3% $0
other 2% −$6
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 9 -8.8% -17.5% 11% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -10.1%
10% -25.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -32.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -39.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage244d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $218 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -21%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $229 $0 -0%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $15 −$6 -38%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 2h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 5h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 10h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 11h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 11h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 18h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 21h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 26h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 26h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 33h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 35h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 36h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 39h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41h
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 166d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $19 179d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 179d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 214d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $19 214d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $49 243d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.00 · official $237.00 (match) · 30 history records