Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BA 0xbabe…cd09 politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$870per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$17
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$72
other 39% −$29
sports 3% −$7
economics 3% −$2
world 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +4.6% -5.4% 12% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 119 -3.4% -12.6% 8% 6% -9.6%
all 127 -3.2% -12.4% 8% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 6% -9.6%
10% -20.8% 6% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,066) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$3 · ×8.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage97d
Avg bet$870
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $297 $299 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $252 $252 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,084 −$2 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $385 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,815 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $225 +$1 +1%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $1,671 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,227 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,582 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $673 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,617 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,476 −$3 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $583 −$1 -0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $49 +$33 +67%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $53 +$46 +86%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $340 +$1 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $404 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $2,586 −$3 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $47 +$37 +79%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,452 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,699 −$3 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $48 +$46 +97%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $706 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $55 +$47 +86%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,764 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $601 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $252 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $386 5h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $387 7h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $385 23h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $385 27h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $213 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $214 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $465 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $466 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $435 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $436 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $465 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $466 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $447 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $448 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $353 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $353 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $410 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $410 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $297 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $672 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $673 9d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $731 12d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $733 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $568 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $569 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $589 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $590 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $632 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $633 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.81 · official $550.81 (match) · 397 history records