Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xbabf…0c45 crypto 1743 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate88%1533W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
other 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 +1.3% -8.4% 86% 44% -11.4%
≤30d 655 -2.0% -11.4% 85% 47% -12.1%
≤90d 1602 -0.6% -10.1% 88% 37% -10.3%
all 1745 -0.2% -9.7% 88% 39% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 39% -10.0%
10% -18.3% 3% -18.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1533 / 212
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1745 / 1743
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1745 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +15%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.61 · official $2.61 (match) · 3500 history records