Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BA 0xbac3…2df4 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.9% -5.0% 100% 0% -4.6%
≤30d 11 +4.9% -5.0% 100% 0% -4.6%
≤90d 11 +4.9% -5.0% 100% 0% -4.6%
all 11 +4.9% -5.0% 100% 0% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 0% -4.6%
10% -14.1% 0% -13.8%
15% -22.4% 0% -22.1%
20% -30.0% 0% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.15 · official $5.15 (match) · 21 history records