Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

BA 0xbac3…78a5 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$4,822 (+67%) realized +$4,852 · open −$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate69%9W / 4L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$425per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$27est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$579

7 days+$2,755

14 days+$4,722

30 days+$4,722

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+50.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+56.9%	+42.0%	78%	67%	+52.0%
≤30d	13	+66.1%	+50.3%	69%	62%	+56.9%
≤90d	13	+66.1%	+50.3%	69%	62%	+56.9%
all	13	+66.1%	+50.3%	69%	62%	+56.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+50.3%	62%	+56.9%
10%	+35.9%	54%	+41.9%
15%	+22.8%	46%	+28.2%
20%	+10.8%	46%	+15.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +66% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +78% → late +56% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$652 vs −$287 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.11 per $1 lost it wins $5.11

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$520

Realized+$4,852

Unrealized−$30

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses9 / 4

Est. fees paid−$27

Open positions4

Markets (closed)13 / 17

History coverage13d

Avg bet$425

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score	Yes	47¢	46¢	$150	$145	−$5 (-3%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 2.5	Over	22¢	20¢	$150	$140	−$10 (-7%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	33¢	30¢	$150	$137	−$13 (-8%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$406	+$352	+87%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Jun 28	$153	+$117	+76%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$302	+$73	+24%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 27	$306	+$37	+12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$358	+$1,027	+287%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$855	−$779	-91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$507	+$34	+7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	Jun 24	$1,000	+$2,193	+219%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$304	−$300	-99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Jun 21	$1,000	−$5	-0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$715	+$1,616	+226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$301	+$420	+140%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$360	−$64	-18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 2.5	BUY Over	22¢	$154	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$152	1h
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	33¢	$153	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	15¢	$86	15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	86¢	$758	15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	15h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	44¢	$270	16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	31¢	$102	17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	58¢	$253	17h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$153	17h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	80¢	$302	19h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	35¢	$343	19h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$306	21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	27¢	$143	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	30¢	$60	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	17¢	$205	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$204	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$307	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	42¢	$509	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	58¢	$541	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$405	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	SELL Yes	44¢	$3,193	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	53¢	$304	4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$24	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$16	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$4	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$398	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.52 · official $519.52 (match) · 45 history records