Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbac4…1ab2 other 60 markets active 25d ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67,639 (-79%) realized −$67,731 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%16W / 44L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,425per market
Trades / day133.5pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$7,854
sports 4% +$1,515
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -87.6% -88.8% 0% 0% -78.6%
≤90d 60 -12.9% -21.2% 27% 20% -16.7%
all 60 -12.9% -21.2% 27% 20% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 20% -16.7%
10% -28.7% 17% -24.6%
15% ← realistic here -35.6% 17% -31.9%
20% -41.9% 15% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,996) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
35.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,283 vs −$613 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$67,731
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$1,425
Trades / day133.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 17¢ 94¢ $20 $113 +$92 (+450%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $1,060 −$1,050 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $3,534 −$1,164 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $94 −$90 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $4,260 −$2,019 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $4,689 −$3,975 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $1,008 −$957 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $70 −$68 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $3,138 −$1,481 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $3,630 −$1,681 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $7,552 −$2,841 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3,587 −$1,036 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $1,862 −$1,476 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $1,959 −$1,107 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $3,053 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $1,996 −$763 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $6 −$3 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $2,336 +$411 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $476 −$476 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $3,291 −$6 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $4,466 −$295 -7%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 11 $121 −$121 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $371 −$253 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $245 −$35 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $578 −$80 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,857 +$317 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $2,370 +$5,846 +247%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $2,812 −$425 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $1,089 +$1,359 +125%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $1,855 −$686 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 05 $484 −$274 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $4,699 +$5,736 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $542 +$48 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $229 −$139 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $61 −$51 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $974 +$1,913 +196%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $815 +$624 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $782 −$59 -8%
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30? Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $838 +$555 +66%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Apr 30 $483 −$483 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $1,640 −$325 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $496 −$148 -30%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $525 −$525 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $795 −$361 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $3,200 −$943 -30%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi Apr 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $717 −$717 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $700 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 25d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 25d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 25d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 25d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $45 25d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,115 25d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $92 25d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $97 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $28 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.65 · official $112.65 (match) · 3500 history records