Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbac7…85b4 crypto 202 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-6%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%124W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$93
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$21
other 14% −$10
sports 12% −$59
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 +4.3% -5.6% 61% 54% -18.7%
≤30d 202 +4.0% -5.9% 61% 54% -18.4%
≤90d 202 +4.0% -5.9% 61% 54% -18.4%
all 202 +4.0% -5.9% 61% 54% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 54% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 45% -26.2%
15% -23.1% 36% -33.3%
20% -30.7% 23% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses124 / 78
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)202 / 202
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 202 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 496 history records