Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xbac8…6cec other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$132 (+0%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate72%26W / 10L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$740per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$91
tech 18% +$34
crypto 16% +$3
other 8% +$6
economics 7% −$3
politics 7% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 5 +0.7% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 36 -0.6% -10.0% 72% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,031) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.96 per $1 lost it wins $18.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses26 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage160d
Avg bet$740
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 24 $630 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $4,482 +$11 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $3,057 +$15 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 11 $605 +$1 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2,227 +$61 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 25 $2,250 +$15 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $1,076 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 15 $473 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $526 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 04 $321 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 28 $221 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 24 $452 +$8 +2%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 23 $29 +$5 +16%
Will France win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympic Feb 20 $140 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 18 $56 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Feb 18 $139 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Nikola Jokić win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Feb 16 $51 +$1 +3%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $1,246 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Feb 04 $524 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 02 $294 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $517 +$5 +1%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 28 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 27 $518 $0 -0%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 24 $517 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $1,031 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 23 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 22 $1,030 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $516 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $515 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $200 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 18 $315 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 18 $100 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $214 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $214 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $630 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $630 28h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $630 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $629 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $630 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $627 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $626 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $625 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $625 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $624 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $624 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $622 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $129 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $119 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $622 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $620 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $619 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $618 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $618 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $616 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 298 history records