Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbac9…420c crypto 52 markets active 3d ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$221 (+24%) realized +$225 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 35L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$408
14 days+$408
30 days+$425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$571
crypto 42% −$264
politics 6% −$4
world 5% −$50
sports 4% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -23.4% -30.7% 24% 24% +121.6%
≤30d 30 -19.8% -27.5% 27% 27% +117.8%
≤90d 31 -22.4% -29.8% 26% 26% +86.9%
all 45 -39.9% -45.6% 22% 22% +15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 22% +15.8%
10% -50.8% 22% +4.7%
15% -55.5% 20% -5.4%
20% -59.9% 20% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +106% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$12 · ×5.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$225
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage236d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 16 $110 +$502 +457%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 05 $20 +$16 +82%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the Feb 26 $175 −$175 -100%
Bills vs. Dolphins Feb 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? Feb 26 $121 +$41 +34%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 26 $73 +$50 +68%
Spread: Ravens (-3.5) Nov 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 15¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.35 · official $124.35 (match) · 102 history records