Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbac9…bb68 other 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$20
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$38
sports 26% −$25
politics 9% −$9
culture 7% −$7
world 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage127d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $559 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $721 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $571 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $507 −$2 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $308 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $333 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $269 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $322 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $331 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $101 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $161 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 06 $136 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $270 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $41 20m
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 2h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $41 4h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $41 5h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 7h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 10h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 12h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 17h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 18h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 22h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 23h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $42 24h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 26h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $42 27h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 36h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $42 41h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $42 42h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $42 44h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $42 46h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 47h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.96 · official $40.96 (match) · 1340 history records