Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BA 0xbaca…49e6 sports 538 markets active 1h ago coverage 408d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,626 (-4%) realized −$2,622 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%247W / 285L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$288
7 days+$296
14 days+$390
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$3,030
other 25% −$142
politics 10% +$2,174
world 2% −$874
culture 1% −$547
crypto 0% −$53
economics 0% −$51
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +31.7% +19.2% 61% 61% +9.0%
≤30d 61 +24.5% +12.7% 62% 62% -3.5%
≤90d 247 +0.3% -9.2% 53% 50% -10.3%
all 532 -9.2% -17.9% 46% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 44% -13.2%
10% -25.7% 39% -21.5%
15% -32.9% 33% -29.1%
20% -39.5% 27% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$74 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$2,622
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses247 / 285
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions2
Markets (closed)532 / 538
History coverage408d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Vinicius Oliveira win by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $40 +$29 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $50 +$35 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $50 −$10 -20%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners AND Will Morocco win on Jun 20 $100 +$106 +107%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $107 +$93 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners AND Ca Jun 19 $9 +$13 +139%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico Jun 18 $26 −$22 -84%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$4 -23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $73 +$79 +108%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$33 +84%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$49 +121%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $95 +$46 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $403 −$109 -27%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $90 −$87 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8 +$11 +133%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $58 −$48 -82%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$38 +75%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $25 +$19 +74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $48 +$38 +79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $29 +$32 +107%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $33 +$24 +71%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $47 +$41 +88%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $18 +$27 +149%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $34 −$4 -11%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $61 −$27 -44%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $60 +$36 +60%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $38 +$21 +56%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $32 +$27 +84%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $51 +$34 +67%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $126 −$69 -55%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $75 +$29 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $18 +$32 +174%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $46 +$93 +202%
Dinamo 1948 vs. FCSB: O/U 2.5 May 30 $174 −$174 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $22 +$18 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $41 +$33 +82%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra May 27 $15 +$6 +40%
Fokina vs. Tirante: Match O/U 38.5 May 27 $69 +$56 +81%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: Both Teams to Score May 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 +$19 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $25 59m
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 100¢ $86 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY 54¢ $14 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $50 9h
Will Vinicius Oliveira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 57¢ $40 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden SELL 45¢ $40 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 55¢ $50 11h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 58¢ $51 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to BUY 42¢ $55 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners AND Will Morocco win on SELL 99¢ $206 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners AND Will Morocco win on BUY 47¢ $100 30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 53¢ $107 34h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico SELL $4 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners AND Ca BUY 41¢ $9 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL 35¢ $15 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico BUY 27¢ $26 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 43¢ $19 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $19 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $63 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $5 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $80 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $5 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $73 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $73 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $50 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $90 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.32 · official $52.32 · 1632 history records