Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xbacb…de9b other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+3%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%31W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$25
14 days+$52
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$10
sports 20% +$10
crypto 8% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +8.8% -1.6% 52% 52% -3.6%
≤30d 63 +3.1% -6.7% 49% 49% -8.0%
≤90d 63 +3.1% -6.7% 49% 49% -8.0%
all 63 +3.1% -6.7% 49% 49% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 49% -8.0%
10% -15.6% 43% -16.8%
15% -23.8% 38% -24.9%
20% -31.2% 30% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses31 / 32
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage16d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $28 $0 -1%
Argentina to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $10 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $6 $0 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $44 −$9 -21%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 +$6 +79%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $23 +$17 +73%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $13 +$2 +13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 +$3 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$15 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 +$14 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$6 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 +$6 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$6 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -61%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$3 -24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$3 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$5 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$7 +62%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $12 −$1 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$8 -39%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 59¢ $28 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 6h
Argentina to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 94¢ $33 6h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 35h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 35h
Argentina to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 47h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $13 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 84¢ $13 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $13 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.40 · official $3.40 (match) · 132 history records