Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xbacd…ab35
world · 144 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$139,414 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40,040 · open −$1,028
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,081,473
Realized+$40,040
Unrealized−$1,028
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses26 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions301
Markets (closed)36 / 144
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6,754
Trades / day414.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 301 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,868
7 days+$40,040
14 days+$40,040
30 days+$40,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $127,721 $144,052 +$16,331 (+13%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $90,010 $99,950 +$9,940 (+11%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $72,366 $81,970 +$9,604 (+13%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $71,203 $79,363 +$8,160 (+11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $48,702 $58,402 +$9,699 (+20%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 80¢ 81¢ $42,462 $43,394 +$932 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $29,866 $33,580 +$3,714 (+12%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $31,219 $29,958 −$1,260 (-4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $46,388 $27,904 −$18,485 (-40%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $35,426 $26,902 −$8,523 (-24%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $15,305 $26,836 +$11,531 (+75%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $13,252 $24,053 +$10,800 (+81%)
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? No 98¢ 98¢ $19,935 $19,884 −$51 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $19,381 $19,684 +$302 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $24,808 $19,683 −$5,124 (-21%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $17,472 $17,993 +$522 (+3%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $22,998 $14,888 −$8,110 (-35%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $12,450 $12,783 +$333 (+3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 61¢ 74¢ $10,173 $12,332 +$2,159 (+21%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 44¢ $8,303 $10,085 +$1,782 (+21%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 85¢ 82¢ $10,231 $9,967 −$264 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $21,937 $9,570 −$12,367 (-56%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 34¢ $10,132 $9,352 −$780 (-8%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 82¢ 99¢ $7,286 $8,782 +$1,495 (+21%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $5,433 $8,613 +$3,180 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5,555 +$82 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $126,057 +$9,682 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $10,134 +$4,862 +48%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $22,162 +$1,638 +7%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $78 −$78 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 11 $169 −$56 -33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 11 $1,503 −$379 -25%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $688 +$2 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $127 +$218 +172%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 11 $3,514 +$48 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $360 −$360 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $2,963 −$2,963 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $235 −$235 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 11 $3,547 −$422 -12%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 11 $66,602 +$1,864 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $1,426 +$12 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $64 +$36 +57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $356 −$60 -17%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $859 +$6 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $126 +$13 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $3,339 +$45 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7,891 +$310 +4%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $6,606 +$664 +10%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $7,762 +$17,852 +230%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,972 +$880 +45%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $170 +$9 +5%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $591 +$805 +136%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $3,493 +$347 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $12,579 +$125 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $4,430 +$190 +4%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $26,156 +$1,695 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 08 $2,634 −$28 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 08 $1,388 +$189 +14%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $13,572 +$824 +6%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $19,128 +$2,252 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% +$30,486
politics 31% +$40,633
other 24% −$26,489
finance 2% −$3,696
tech 0% −$18
sports 0% −$1,655
culture 0% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $103 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 10m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 10m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 10m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 39¢ $148 17m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $296 29m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 32m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 33m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 34m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 34m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 41¢ $82 34m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 35m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 35m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 36m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 37m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 37m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $120 53m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $182 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $1,573 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $178 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,692 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 95¢ $190 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 95¢ $970 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 95¢ $211 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 17¢ $151 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 46¢ $204 3h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $56 3h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 3h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +5.7% -4.3% 72% 22% +0.6%
≤30d 36 +5.7% -4.3% 72% 22% +0.6%
≤90d 36 +5.7% -4.3% 72% 22% +0.6%
all 36 +5.7% -4.3% 72% 22% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover414.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 22% +0.6%
10% -13.5% 17% -9.0%
15% ← realistic here -21.8% 17% -17.8%
20% -29.5% 11% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,081,472.60 · official $1,081,496.62 (match) · 3500 history records