Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xbacd…18c2 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%17W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$545per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$7
sports 27% +$5
crypto 13% +$2
tech 7% +$3
finance 7% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 17 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$625) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses17 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage102d
Avg bet$545
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $630 +$3 +0%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $626 +$2 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $627 +$1 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $625 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $625 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $620 +$3 +0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $3.00? May 09 $600 +$1 +0%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 22 $622 +$1 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Jazz Apr 11 $620 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 7? Apr 09 $618 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $617 +$2 +0%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 26 $616 +$1 +0%
Will "STEEL BALL RUN JoJo's Bizarre Adventure" be the #2 US Netflix sh Mar 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will "Mark Normand: None Too Pleased" be the #2 US Netflix show this w Mar 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will "Age of Attraction" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Mar 25 $300 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 9-15? Mar 17 $615 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $630 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $626 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $627 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $625 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $625 11d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $620 31d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $600 44d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $3.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $600 50d
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $622 68d
Grizzlies vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 100¢ $620 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $618 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $617 91d
Bulls vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 100¢ $616 91d
Will "Mark Normand: None Too Pleased" be the #2 US Netflix show this w BUY No 100¢ $150 94d
Will "STEEL BALL RUN JoJo's Bizarre Adventure" be the #2 US Netflix sh BUY No 100¢ $150 94d
Will "Age of Attraction" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $300 94d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $615 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records