Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BA 0xbad2…9b8a crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%42W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$6
crypto 11% +$1
other 4% −$1
politics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 58 +0.0% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses42 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage545d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in December? Jan 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Nov 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 03 $33 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Lee Nak-yon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Apr 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $5,013 −$5 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Feb 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 05 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 30d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 61d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 63d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 91d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $49 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $49 150d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 183d
Will Solana reach $200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $52 183d
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? BUY No 100¢ $33 212d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $30 212d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $36 243d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $34 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 100¢ $16 303d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $44 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $36 335d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 367d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 367d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 393d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 395d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? BUY No 100¢ $9 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.53 · official $67.53 (match) · 122 history records