Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xbad2…5296 world 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (162 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$147,290 (+48%) realized +$137,061 · open +$10,229
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%68W / 55L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,642per market
Trades / day162.2pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$173,809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16,508
7 days+$24,047
14 days+$36,605
30 days+$43,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$29,318
politics 24% +$24,159
other 24% +$2,834
crypto 12% +$2,284
sports 3% −$3,403
tech 2% +$373
finance 1% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (162 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 41% +13.9%
≤30d 123 +21.6% +10.0% 55% 46% +11.7%
≤90d 123 +21.6% +10.0% 55% 46% +11.7%
all 123 +21.6% +10.0% 55% 46% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover162.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.0% 46% +11.7%
10% -0.5% 42% +1.0%
15% ← realistic here -10.2% 34% -8.7%
20% -19.0% 25% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,051) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$869 vs −$283 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.8 per $1 lost it wins $3.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$173,809
Realized+$137,061
Unrealized+$10,229
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses68 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions175
Markets (closed)123 / 186
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$1,642
Trades / day162.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 175 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 79¢ 85¢ $10,011 $10,788 +$777 (+8%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 87¢ 99¢ $9,176 $10,460 +$1,284 (+14%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $9,738 $9,799 +$60 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $7,734 $7,829 +$96 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 88¢ $6,280 $7,466 +$1,186 (+19%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $4,725 $5,183 +$458 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $4,365 $5,029 +$664 (+15%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $4,663 $4,888 +$225 (+5%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $5,064 $4,506 −$558 (-11%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $4,418 $4,487 +$69 (+2%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 83¢ 95¢ $3,752 $4,308 +$556 (+15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $4,311 $4,293 −$18 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $3,845 $4,212 +$367 (+10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 79¢ 92¢ $3,404 $3,931 +$527 (+15%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $3,286 $3,839 +$553 (+17%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 73¢ 86¢ $3,107 $3,705 +$598 (+19%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 83¢ 99¢ $3,094 $3,687 +$592 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $2,472 $3,423 +$951 (+38%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 61¢ 90¢ $1,870 $2,722 +$852 (+46%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $3,238 $2,720 −$518 (-16%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $2,209 $2,454 +$245 (+11%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $2,199 $2,429 +$229 (+10%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,203 $2,301 +$98 (+4%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $2,194 $2,294 +$100 (+5%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $2,145 $2,284 +$140 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o Jun 15 $438 −$438 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 15 $213 −$213 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,105 +$1,644 +78%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,777 +$3,004 +169%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $2,570 +$896 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $567 +$96 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,520 +$1,368 +90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $2,452 +$928 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $498 +$346 +70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $1,167 +$554 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,662 +$719 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9,567 +$4,757 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $3,096 +$2,657 +86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $2,159 −$322 -15%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $8,086 +$325 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,742 +$759 +28%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f Jun 13 $556 +$93 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1,073 +$30 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $1,078 +$30 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $442 +$48 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $537 +$507 +94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,382 +$1,012 +73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1,214 +$234 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $959 −$515 -54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $481 −$156 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $78 +$198 +253%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $211 +$11 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $152 +$6 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $233 −$142 -61%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $122 +$44 +36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $77 +$22 +29%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $355 −$241 -68%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $316 −$316 -100%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $437 −$437 -100%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $9 +$4 +44%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $2,022 +$1,473 +73%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 10 $264 −$264 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $293 −$293 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $494 −$494 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $473 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $447 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,417 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $921 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $860 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $882 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $377 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $68 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $905 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $227 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $7 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $0 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $5 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $69 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $284 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $10 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $186 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $1,555 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $911 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $838 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $418 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $173 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $624 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $294 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $130 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $249 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $845 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $897 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173,809.19 · official $173,810.05 (match) · 3500 history records