Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbad9…8cb6 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-6%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$15
other 31% $0
sports 9% −$6
politics 9% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -7.1% -15.9% 40% 0% -16.4%
≤90d 5 -7.1% -15.9% 40% 0% -16.4%
all 21 -3.2% -12.4% 48% 0% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -15.1%
10% -20.8% 0% -23.2%
15% -28.4% 0% -30.7%
20% -35.5% 0% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage472d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 70¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $41 −$15 -36%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $38 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $6 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 25 $6 $0 +4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will Mohamed Salah break the assists record this season? May 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 22 $16 −$6 -37%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $4 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Mar 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Heathrow Airport reopen by Saturday 8 AM GMT? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 12? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $21 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $6 4h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $26 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $37 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $41 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $45 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $45 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $9 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $30 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $38 26d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $6 362d
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 98¢ $1 370d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $6 393d
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? BUY No 96¢ $6 395d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? SELL No 96¢ $5 395d
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes $0 395d
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes $0 395d
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes $0 395d
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes $0 395d
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes $0 395d
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes $0 395d
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes $0 396d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 97¢ $5 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records