Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbada…ebb9 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-4%) realized −$7 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$53
sports 29% +$36
politics 19% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% -12.7%
≤30d 2 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% -12.7%
≤90d 2 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% -12.7%
all 2 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 50% -12.7%
10% -27.8% 50% -21.1%
15% -34.8% 0% -28.7%
20% -41.2% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$43 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $48 $37 −$11 (-24%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 92¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $111 +$36 +32%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $76 −$43 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 6m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 15m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 27m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 27m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $73 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $96 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $23 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.88 · official $178.88 (match) · 11 history records