Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BA 0xbada…d874 other 571 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,548 (+14%) realized +$1,371 · open +$2,177
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%286W / 236L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$4,415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days+$316
14 days+$698
30 days+$1,659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 57% +$1,336
other 31% +$2,993
crypto 4% +$439
tech 3% +$130
sports 3% +$52
politics 1% −$5
world 0% −$5
weather 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +16.1% +5.0% 65% 42% +2.1%
≤30d 244 +24.9% +13.0% 63% 45% +6.4%
≤90d 521 +28.2% +15.9% 55% 44% +3.6%
all 522 +27.9% +15.7% 55% 44% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 44% +3.6%
10% +4.7% 37% -6.3%
15% -5.5% 31% -15.4%
20% -14.7% 27% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$22 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$4,415
Realized+$1,371
Unrealized+$2,177
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses286 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions49
Markets (closed)522 / 571
History coverage90d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 522 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 38¢ 99¢ $1,418 $3,725 +$2,307 (+163%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 15 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+7%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Down 61¢ 68¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+12%)
Will Iran win the World Cup? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? Yes 42¢ 92¢ $23 $49 +$27 (+117%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 Week of June 15 2026? No 52¢ 94¢ $27 $49 +$22 (+80%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by June 30? No 7¢ 76¢ $4 $38 +$34 (+979%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 26¢ 6¢ $136 $35 −$102 (-75%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $25 $30 +$4 (+17%)
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Toss Match Double Sri Lanka Winner No 26¢ 50¢ $16 $30 +$14 (+89%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Up 65¢ 88¢ $20 $26 +$7 (+35%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $98 Week of June 15 2026? No 81¢ 95¢ $19 $23 +$3 (+18%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $900 Week of June 15 2026? No 57¢ 97¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+71%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 15 2026? No 72¢ 96¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+34%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $197 Week of June 15 2026? No 37¢ 96¢ $7 $19 +$12 (+159%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $144 $17 −$127 (-88%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 18? No 42¢ 28¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 13¢ 61¢ $3 $13 +$10 (+369%)
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-16%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $355 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 44¢ 18¢ $24 $10 −$15 (-60%)
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 48¢ 48¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Toss Match Double Draw No 13¢ 49¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+277%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by June 30? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$12 +51%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? Jun 17 $331 +$285 +86%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $28 −$6 -20%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $24 +$23 +92%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $67 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $17 +$51 +295%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$126 +126%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $345 −$269 -78%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? Jun 17 $148 −$117 -79%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -74%
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 17 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$5 +182%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $17 $0 -2%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by June 30? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $390? Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $370? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$2 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? Jun 16 $6 +$30 +485%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? Jun 16 $331 +$98 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $95 −$83 -88%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$37 +716%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$3 -36%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of June 15 20 Jun 16 $42 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 16, 6AM ET? Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$2 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $59 +$11 +19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $33 +$17 +53%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $172.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $19 −$14 -74%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $32 +$24 +74%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 15, 12AM ET? Jun 15 $81 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 15, 1AM ET? Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 15, 12AM ET? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -94%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $134 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $47 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 91¢ $9 3m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 18? SELL No 32¢ $3 3m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 27¢ $6 7m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 67¢ $6 27m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 27m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 67¢ $6 27m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 28m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $60 37m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 56m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $68 56m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $38 57m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 57m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $21 58m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 58m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $6 58m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 58m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $21 58m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 58m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $75 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 54¢ $48 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 54¢ $48 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 54¢ $48 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 54¢ $49 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 54¢ $49 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,415.42 · official $4,421.71 (match) · 1955 history records