Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xbadb…7f12 crypto 488 markets active 1d ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$148 (-10%) realized −$125 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%217W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$105
other 10% −$10
world 6% −$35
politics 1% −$4
sports 1% −$5
weather 1% +$3
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.6% +3.7% 65% 65% -1.3%
≤30d 28 +18.0% +6.8% 61% 61% -7.3%
≤90d 285 -42.0% -47.5% 26% 22% -45.5%
all 471 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 38% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 38% -18.4%
10% -27.4% 30% -26.2%
15% -34.4% 24% -33.4%
20% -40.8% 17% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses217 / 254
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)471 / 488
History coverage192d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 471 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 36¢ 16¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-56%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-58%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 43¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 57¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +307%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +66%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +82%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +40%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +40%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$3 -54%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 11 $2 +$5 +238%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 +$8 +65%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 08 $1 $0 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? May 03 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 03 $1 $0 +33%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +72%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 -22%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 27 $5 $0 +9%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 23 $1 $0 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 17 $1 $0 -21%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will India join the Board of Peace? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $1 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $4 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $2 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 16d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.89 · official $34.90 (match) · 3190 history records